A compelling new theory on revolutionary success...

Is that the chances of your revolution succeeding rely heavily on the person in charge having underinvested in arseholes with sticks.

"This is my advice to any aspiring dictator; early on in your career, identify and inventory all the self-pitying, bullying shitheads your country has to offer. Anyone with a grievance, a beer belly and enough strength to swing a pickaxe handle will do."

 The idea here is that if you have enough people protesting, the army is likely to keep out of their way.  If, however, you have some civilians of your own, who are not averse to mixing it with the revolutionaries, and who may even have been itching for a chance, then they are much more likely to help you suppress the uprising than are the military.